Can the Precautionary Principle Manage Risks Effectively?

In the past two centuries, despite — or is it because of ? —economic growth and technological change, life threatening risks have one by one been reduced or eliminated in the world’s richer nations (Goklany 2007). The 20th century saw the United States’ population multiply by four, income by seven, carbon dioxide emissions by nine, material use by 27, and chemical use by more than 100. Yet people are living longer, and healthier. Life expectancy increased from 47 years to 77 years. The disability rate for seniors declined 28 percent between 1982 and 2004/2005 (Manton et al. 2006) and, despite quantum improvements in diagnostic tools, major diseases (e.g., cancer, and heart and respiratory diseases) now occur 8–11 years later than a century ago (Fogel 2003).